Words, words, words

On the New York Times website, there is a very interesting graph showing how many times a number of given words have been used by both sides of the presidential campaign per 25,000 words spoken. The graph simply shows facts, but they are quite revealing if you take pains at a simple superficial analysis of them.

One of the most recurrent words in both campaigns is Change. The Democrats have used it 89 times, by far the word they use the most. It makes perfect sense. They are the opposition. The current Bush administration is very unpopular. So the Democrats need to convey the message that if they are elected, the voters' life is going to change for the better. This is a classic message of the opposition, here and anywhere else.
It is, however, more original to hear this word used a lot by the party which is leading the country. The Republicans have used Change 30 times per 25,000 words; it is the third most used word by them after God (43 times) and Taxes (42 times). Even more striking is that the word Reform(s) has been used much more by the Republicans than by the Democrats: 22 times to 6.
During the convention speeches, John McCain and Sarah Palin have indeed emphasized that their victory would bring change to Washington, although the country is led by a fellow Republican. This, of course, reveals the urgent need for McCain to separate himself from Bush, unpopular among the Republicans as well as among the rest of the population. It is an urgent need, but it is going to be a difficult trick to pull. JoeBarack Obiden need to constantly associate McBush in their campaign and remind people that change cannot be that significant from a Republican administration to a Republican administration. It is cruelly ironic than the name of Bush has only been used 7 times by the Republicans, who have never mentioned Dick Cheney's name. I don't have previous data of the same kind, but this has to be a historical record low. Even Al Gore, who ran in 2000 and who tried to separate himself from Bill Clinton's sex scandal, has probably cited his White House mate more often.
The Democrats have used the name of Bush 46 times and 6 times the name of Cheney.

Because promoting change is hardly making any sense for the Republicans, John and Sarah are campaigning a lot about their character. The word Character have been used 17 times by the Republicans and 3 times by the Democrats. Indeed, John is incessantly -- to the point of nausea during the convention -- depicted by himself and his supporters as a courageous and honorable POW who suffered for his country for so long. His biographical video at the convention and the speeches of some of his supporters -- Romney, Giuliani, Graham -- have told in graphic detail the five years he spent in a Vietnamese cell and the wounds he endured.
Sarah is constantly referred to as a mother, more precisely as a hockey mom, an expression used 4 times by the Republicans. It seems few but it is arguably a lot in a political campaign. This campaign should be about economic and social issues more than about the character of the candidates. Basing an electoral campaign on character could be risky because it is necessarily hypocritical. While portraits of John and Sarah emphasize their honor, courage, independence, morals, their opponents could highlight what the Republicans leave behind about their candidates: John cheated on his first wife, for example, which should be damning to the Conservatives who tried to impeach Bill Clinton and who politically killed John Edwards.

But the Democrats do not do that. They actually try to focus on policies, however simplistically. They have used the terms Economy 32 times (used 15 times by the Republicans), Health care 34 times (15 times by the Republicans), Energy 49 times (against 26), Jobs 39 times (against 18).
They are doing what they should do, but I am not sure they are doing what works to win an election.

Quite surprisingly, both sides have talked about immigration, Iran, terrorism very little. The campaign is not over, of course, and these themes will probably appear in the speeches. For now, they are overshadowed by what is causing trouble in the Americans' everyday life, the price of gas and milk.
Immigration was used 3 times by the Democrats and only once by the Republicans; Iran, 5 by the Dems, 2 by the Reps; Terrorism or Terrorists, 8 times by each side.

Neither side has talked much of terrorism. However, one side has indecently used images of the 9/11 attacks during the party convention. I let you guess which one.